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The Atlas on International Freshwater Agreements, brought out to mark World Water Day on March 22, 2003, in the International Year of Freshwater, claims that the availability/non-availability of freshwater could be the flashpoint for future conflict in the world
Around 150 river basins, upon which millions of people worldwide depend for their drinking water purposes, irrigation and, in some cases, energy, could be flashpoint for future disputes unless urgent action is taken today. River basins are areas or regions through which important rivers run and which cross or demarcate international borders. A study -- the Atlas on International Freshwater Agreements -- launched on March 19, 2003, by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), in conjunction with the United Nation's Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) and Oregon State University to mark World Water Day, shows that cooperation between countries where these basins exist, is inconsistent. Many of the basins are in Asia, Latin America and Africa where tensions over water for drinking, irrigation, fisheries and hydropower may be aggravated by rising populations and existing political, social and environmental upheavals. The UNEP's executive director, Klaus Toepfer, who is attending the 3rd World Water Forum in Kyoto, Japan, said: "This study is both cause for alarm and cause for optimism. It chronicles the history of water agreements and treaties as far back as 2,500 BC and shows us that cooperation between countries and the sharing of resources has been the historical norm. It also, however, highlights the need for vigilance, scientific rigour and diplomatic vigour in ensuring that this cooperation is maintained and extended to other river systems." "Although over 3,000 treaties and agreements, covering over 100 international river basins, have been signed over the centuries, 158 of the world's international river basins lack any type of cooperative agreements," he said. Toepfer added: "There is an urgent need for international organisations to apply the lessons of the past, for the benefit of present and future parties. They should perhaps act as the `water equivalent' of marriage guidance counsellors, amicably resolving differences between countries and communities that may be straying apart, or act as go-betweens for those who are flirting with cooperation but are too coy, too unsure, maybe even too distrustful about how to proceed. So we must hone our skills and develop our capabilities in what will be the increasingly important field of hydro-diplomacy." The atlas, compiled by Aaron T Wolf of Oregon State University in the United States, the UNEP and the FAO, which draws on maps, statistical analyses and historical documents suggests that the first recorded water treaty was 4,500 years ago. This was when the two Sumerian city-states of Lagash and Umma brokered an agreement to end a water dispute along the Tigris river. Since then, more than 3,600 international water agreements have been documented. While most concern navigational, boundary delineation and fishery issues, the dawn of hydropower and large-scale irrigation development in the 20th century has shifted the focus of negotiation and treaty-making towards water-use, development, protection and conservation. Notably, since 1820, there have been more than 400 agreements related to water as a limited and consumable resource. Professor Wolf said: "We have found that cooperation between countries over the past 50 years has outnumbered conflicts by more than two-to-one. Things can go wrong. But since 1948, only 37 incidents of acute conflict, such as those involving violence, have occurred. Thirty of these were between Israel and one or another of its neighbours." The atlas lists 263 rivers that either cross or mark international political boundaries -- 69 are in Europe, 57 in Asia, 59 in Africa, 40 in North and Central America and 38 in South America. These international basins are distributed over 145 countries that contain 50% of the earth's land surface, 60% of its freshwater and 40% of the global population. The atlas suggests that a huge amount of international diplomatic negotiation still needs to be done. One hundred and fifty-eight of the world's 263 international basins lack any type of cooperative management framework. Potential causes for disputes could occur if the creation of newly-independent states leads to changes in political boundaries, countries act unilaterally to change the course or volume of water, or nations are already at loggerheads over other issues. Even in areas where there are existing agreements, vigilance is required. According to Wolf: "Of the remaining 106 basins and water institutions, approximately two-thirds have three or more riparian states (ones with banks directly on or next to the river), yet less than 20% of the accompanying agreements are multilateral." Ashbindu Singh, co-author of the atlas, said the study makes it clear that existing and new agreements need to be strengthened to include not only the need to share water, but also to address issues of water quality, monitoring, public participation, effective conflict resolution and more flexible methods of allocation that take into account events such as drought. Greater flexibility and more imaginative ways of sharing water resources are bound to become increasingly necessary over the coming decades, as population pressures, the need to grow more crops and factors such as climate change place greater demands on our already stretched freshwater reserves. InfoChange News & Features, March 2003
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