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Official data suggests that the number of people living below the poverty line in India has decreased from 55% in 1973/74 to 26% in 1999/2000. Interestingly, fertility too had begun to decline during the '70s
According to Professor P N Mari Bhat, leading demographer and director of the International Institute for Population Sciences, there is a strong co-relation between poverty reduction in India and decline in fertility rates. While delivering a lecture, 'Contribution of fertility decline to poverty reduction in rural India', recently, Bhat contended that decline in fertility had contributed significantly to the estimated reduction in poverty during the past three decades.
The lecture, held as part of the platinum jubilee celebrations of Pune's Gokhale Institute of Politics and Economics, highlighted the fact that at least 25% of the reduction in poverty in India was a result of demographic changes, not policy changes. Speakers pointed out that a substantial decline in fertility had occurred even amongst the poor, and that the poor had contributed significantly to the reduction of poverty.
According to Bhat, poor households tend to have more children per adults. By reducing the dependency burden (children per adult) there is a decrease in fertility, which leads to a reduction in the incidence of poverty. "The fertility decline is expected to reduce poverty by reducing the number of children per adults among poor households. Consumer expenditure data from the National Sample Survey (NSS) is used to quantify the contribution of fertility decline to poverty reduction," he said.
He added that the effects of demographic changes were being felt on the per capita expenditure of poor households in the major states. Of them, Kerala recorded the highest reduction in fertility, with the decline in poverty attributed to demographic changes. However Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan and Bihar have shown a reverse trend, with an increase in poverty.
Per capita expenditure is made up of two parts -- expenditure per adult (productivity) and children per adult (dependency burden). An analysis of data from the 27th and 55th rounds of the NSS show that changes in the demographic component accounts for 20% of real increase in per capita expenditure between 1973/74 and 1999/2000 among households in the bottom one-third of the income distribution, and 80% of increase in the top one-third of the income distribution.
Source: The Indian Express, October 11, 2005
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