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Scanty rainfall this monsoon in India's northeastern states is pushing the region into a crisis. While some experts hold global warming responsible for a shift in rainfall patterns, officials are hoping the situation will improve
The Indian northeast, which usually receives more rainfall than any other region in the country, is experiencing near-drought conditions. Officials say that the northeast, which is considered amongst the wettest places in the world, is reeling under a severe heatwave, with scanty rainfall affecting agriculture.
"The rainfall pattern this monsoon in the northeast is rather scanty and it is mainly due to a disturbance in orientation, with the trough located south of its normal position and so there is more rain elsewhere in the country," said Dulal Chakraborty, deputy director general of the Regional Meteorological Centre in Guwahati.
The worst hit by the drought-like situation is Arunachal Pradesh -- the average expected rainfall till July 31 was around 107 cm, but the state received just 55 cm. Nagaland too has received deficient rainfall estimating 49%, followed by Manipur with 42%, Meghalaya with 39%, and Tripura with 11%. The only state that witnessed excess rainfall is Mizoram -- the state has already received 84 cm of an average expected rainfall of 72 cm.
Rainfall patterns have shown a marked shift in concentration to the country's western region from the northeast. Some experts attribute the gradual shift in monsoon patterns to global climate change.
Both Assam and Meghalaya have not had a normal monsoon for around 11 years. Despite floods, Arunachal Pradesh has had a less-than-normal monsoon for 12 years. All the other northeastern states have not had a normal monsoon for 20 of 25 years. "Whatever deficiency we have noticed is not a new thing, it's been continuing for the last hundred years. This fluctuation is what is called the 'inter-annual variability of the monsoon'," says Chakraborty.
The country's average cumulative rainfall, recorded over the past two months, is 441.2 mm, which is 93% of the long-term normal average rainfall for the period. The distribution of rain has been more or less even, in general terms. But, while usually drought-prone areas like Gujarat and central Maharashtra have received excess rainfall, rains in the northeast have been significantly scanty.
However, officials remain hopeful. "In the coming weeks we expect a break monsoon in the mainland and movement of the monsoon trough to the foothills of the Himalayas. So we expect rainfall in the coming one or two weeks, in the northeast. We are still in the middle of the monsoons and a clear picture will emerge only by August-end," says Chakraborty.
But, while millions have been spared flooding from the Brahmaputra, the scanty rainfall has nevertheless affected agriculture. Farmers in the region depend almost entirely on the monsoons. "Crops are already suffering in many parts of the region due to inadequate rains," an Assam agriculture department official said.
Every year, the monsoon causes rivers to flood in Assam, a state of around 26 million people. In 2004, at least 200 people died and millions were displaced in heavy floods. A wave of flooding that began in June in some parts of Assam and Tripura killed 16 people and displaced over half-a-million more. "But compared to previous years, the floods this year were almost negligible," an Assam flood control department official said.
In Assam alone, where 14 districts have been affected by the severe dry spell, assistance to farmers by the agriculture department has been estimated at Rs 92 crore. The revenue department has so far released only Rs 70 lakh. Agriculture Minister Pramila Rani Brahma said that the department had released Rs 5 lakh to each of the affected districts. However, he added that since the weather scientists have described it as a 'drought-like situation', and not drought, the state government had not been able to move the Centre to provide relief to the affected farmers.
Source: www.ndtv.com, August 9,
2006
The Hindu, August 7,
2006
The Financial Express, August 5,
2006
www.indiaenews.com, August 1, 2006
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