A strong link between drought and civil conflict in the developing world is bad news for an increasingly parched world, say scientists whose work links internal unrest to years of low rainfall. Global hotspots will be Sudan, Bangladesh, Haiti, and Nagaland and Manipur in India

Drought-related conflicts in poorer nations are expected to multiply with advancing climate change, say scientists ahead of World Water Day, March 22. Examining decades of data, researchers at the prestigious Earth Institute found a strong correlation between years of water scarcity and the escalation of civil wars in several developing countries including Nepal.

"Severe, prolonged droughts are the strongest indicator of high-intensity conflicts," says Marc Levy of the Centre for International Earth Science Information Network at Columbia University's Earth Institute in New York.

These are internal conflicts, not between countries, and involve more than 1,000 battle deaths, Levy told the media in Washington recently. Such conflicts tend to occur about a year after a "severe deviation in rainfall patterns," he said.

Levy and his colleagues used decades of detailed precipitation records, geospatial conflict information and other data in a complex computer model that overlays all this onto a fine-scale map of the world. "Major deviations from normal rainfall patterns were the strongest predictor of conflicts," he said. "I was surprised at how strong the correlation is."

Levy is careful to say that droughts don't directly cause conflicts but are more likely triggers in regions where there already are tensions or low-level conflict.

For example, in the recent civil conflict in Nepal, the parts of the country where most of the fighting occurred had experienced low rainfall for several years and then a severe drought in the late 1990s. Farmers may have simply given up hope of farming and joined the local rebellion as a way of sustaining themselves and their families, he hypothesises.

Rainfall appears to have a pacifying affect. The wet areas of Africa, for instance, have far fewer years of violent internal conflict than the dry regions, Levy adds.

Areas with a high risk of conflict this year due to extremely dry conditions last year, according to his model, are Cote d'Ivoire, Sudan, Bangladesh, Haiti, and Nagaland and Manipur in India.

While this idea makes sense, "you can't predict how people will act," says Robert McLeman of the University of Ottawa, who studies the relationship between environmental extremes and human migration. "In Nigeria, during periods of drought, the cattle herders and crop farmers usually work things out amongst themselves," he says.

Africans have been dealing with drought for thousands of years. Currently, cities serve as an outlet so there is seasonal migration during the dry season. And more and more people are staying in cities where presumably they can meet their needs more easily than in the countryside, he explains.

That said, McLeman notes that much of Afghanistan has experienced a long drought and farmers might consider joining up with the Taliban if there are no other choices for them.

It appears that normal droughts as experienced in Africa can be accommodated, but significant and rapid environmental changes are more likely to lead to societal instability, forced migration and inter-group violence, agrees Nils Petter Gleditsch of the Centre for the Study of Civil War, at the International Peace Research Institute in Oslo, Norway. "Drought in Hungry is not the same as drought in Ethiopia," in terms of the state being able to buffer the impact, Gleditsch said at the media briefing.

About 1.5 billion people are estimated to be suffering from severe water stress around the world, and that number is expected to increase with population growth and climate change.

While climate change will bring further environmental degradation -- increased flooding and drought, higher temperatures -- the far-reaching social impacts are being considered only in the past few years. "Climate change is likely to lead to a greater frequency of civil wars," Levy predicts.

Inequity is at the heart of most conflicts, says Satish Kumar, Director of Programmes at Schumacher College International Centre for Ecological Studies in Britain. "There is growing anger that the rich are the cause of global warming but it's the poor who will suffer the most," Kumar says. "I've heard people make this connection in regard to the unprecedented droughts in parts of India."

Increased conflict, violence and social unrest is inevitable as global warming makes life even more difficult for many of the world's poor and they become aware that the rich of the world are responsible, Kumar adds.

Source: www.ipsnews.net, March 16, 2007
www.earthinstitute.org,March16,2007