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By Rashme Sehgal Are nations prepared for this demographic transition, asks UNFPA's State of the World Population 2007 report
The world is poised to leave its rural past behind. With cities being the main beneficiaries of globalisation, millions of people chasing jobs are migrating to urban areas both large and small.
For the first time in history, says a UNFPA State of the World Population 2007 report, more than half the world’s population of 3.3 billion is living in urban complexes. Within the next two decades, 5 billion people, that is, 80% of the world’s population, will be living in cities. By contrast, the world’s rural population is expected to decrease by 28 million during the same period.
Since most of this growth will be in Asia and Africa, the crucial question is: how are nation states going to cope with this demographic transition especially as most of the urban growth is going to be propelled by the poor? Are our policymakers and civil society equipped to deal with the situation?
Going by India’s example, the answer is a huge ‘No’. India continues to follow the absurd practice of trying to curb rural migration. Our policymakers and bureaucrats adopt token measures like evicting squatters, depriving rickshawallas of their right to eke out a living plying their vehicles in the narrow lanes of Chandni Chowk and Daryaganj in Delhi, and preventing hawkers from selling unpackaged food along the city’s pavements.
These attempts to halt migration, and the sham eviction of squatters that we periodically witness, are futile and counter-productive, warns the UNFPA report, because most of the urban growth today stems from natural increases in population (more births than deaths) in our cities rather than from migration.
Delhi Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit’s remarks about the massive influx of Bihari workers eating into the capital’s resources are therefore not borne out by fact. Migration is only part of the problem. A recent assessment of urban growth between 1961 and 2001 in India shows that the share of growth attributed to natural population increases in urban areas ranges from 51-65% in this period.
Indian policymakers have worked hard to retard urban growth by giving the word ‘urban’ a strict definition. But the opening up of the agricultural sector and free access to agricultural land is rapidly altering the situation. The government is also hoping that implementation of the National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGS), which provides 100 days of employment for every rural household, will curb migration. Urban poor are not a drain on a city’s resources The rapid expansion of cities is often accompanied by a rapid expansion of unplanned neighbourhoods with a high concentration of poor. Shelter is the core of urban poverty, and addressing this issue could go a long way in improving people’s lives. The problem here is not so much shortage of land but its restricted availability to the poor. Most public authorities do not follow a well planned, proactive policy when it comes to the poor, who tend to be treated as if they were passive in the production and consumption of land. The poor need to be protected from the abusive practices of developers, especially as they do have some capacity to pay for land despite low and unstable incomes. Regarding the urban poor as a drain on the urban economy is a blinkered approach. Experts insist that the urban poor are essential to the economy and wellbeing of cities. Most may work in the informal sector, but this sector is not a messy mix of marginalised activities as it is often viewed. Rather, it is a competitive and dynamic sector that is well integrated with the urban, even the global, economy.
This is not to gloss over the squalid poverty that does exist in our urban conglomerates. Over half the urban population in most developing nations is forced to live in slums; China and India together support 37% of the world’s slums.
The 2001 census estimates the number of slum-dwellers in India at 40.3 million, that’s around 14.2% of the population. The majority of people living in slums are below 18 years of age. Inter-personal rivalries and insecurity is rising among these young people who have been found to be the biggest perpetrators of violence. They are also its principal victims. The problems of adolescents and women living in these difficult circumstances are well known. Critical interventions aimed at helping children get a proper education and develop skills could go a long way in keeping them away from criminal organisations that are strongly entrenched in slum areas. Women and urbanisation Urbanisation increases girls’ access to education and this has a crucial multiplier effect in enhancing women’s social and economic status. The flip side is that although girls are enrolled in schools, their dropout rate remains high. In countries like Bangladesh, Colombia, India and Pakistan, literacy among women living in slums is 30-50% lower than among non-slum communities. Urbanisation has significantly boosted women’s participation in the workforce. But this has been mainly in the informal sector. For example, of the 50 million workers in export processing zones, 80% are young women. Nevertheless, the report admits that women’s employment even in the informal sector plays a key role in keeping households out of poverty. Women, however, own less than 15% of land worldwide. In some Asian countries and in sub-Saharan Africa, women cannot legally own property separate from their husbands. Lacking legal titles to land and property, they have virtually no collateral to obtain loans and credit. This further limits their economic options. Old people find it difficult to cope with urbanisation Urbanisation is also seeing larger numbers of older people having to survive in urban spaces. Older people, especially women who are less likely to have lifetime earnings to fall back on, need strong social support systems and economic security. This is not easy to come by as most of these women have never worked in the formal sector.
By 2050, 24% of China’s population will be 65 years and over compared with 8% today; 7% will be over 80, compared to 1% today. Although India has a more youthful population, the number of elderly here too is rising. People are living longer and have fewer children. In China, the city of Wei Hai is building homes for around 10,000 abandoned elderly who have no direct family support. In Chennai, where the total fertility rate has already fallen to below replacement levels, the city is closing down 10 maternity clinics, retraining staff and re-opening them as geriatric units.
One of the biggest drawbacks of urbanisation is that it tends to erode traditional socio-cultural norms, values, social networks and family support structures that help look after both the young and the aged. How we create alternative structures is something that has to be worked out. New approaches will have to be found. And that can best be done if both governments and the public come together in joint partnerships.
The report highlights how 2 million inhabitants of Pune, in a joint public-private partnership pioneered by the National Slum Dwellers Federation, mahila milans (a network of savings and credit groups formed by women) and the Society for the Promotion of Area Resource Centres helped build public toilet blocks for 2 million slum-dwellers in partnership with the local municipality.
Satellite pictures show that urban areas cover less than 2.8% of the earth’s land mass -- an area slightly smaller than Japan. But because our cities pulse with a concentrated mass of people, we tend to see them as larger than they really are. The key question is how sustainable our urban conglomerates are. The answer to this complex question lies in the kind of consumption patterns adopted by city-dwellers. If we continue to dip into our natural resources -- with the Amazon forests being cut down for wood, tropical forests in Tabasco destroyed to meet the growing demand for meat in Mexico City, or closer home, lakhs of farmers and villagers being displaced to build dams -- we will have to pay a heavy price.
The interaction between urban growth and sustainability is particularly critical for our future. Preventing environmental degradation and reducing the vulnerability of the poor are key interventions that will determine the quality of life in our towns and cities. InfoChange News & Features, July 2007
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