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By Devinder Sharma International wheat prices have risen 300% in the last five years, and foodstocks are plummeting. With small farms being gobbled up by big agribusiness, farmland increasingly diverted for industrial purposes, and the international focus shifting from staple foods to cash crops, the world now faces an impending food crisis
The warning signs are everywhere. There is a growing shortage of food worldwide; food prices are rising alarmingly, and hunger is set to grow. It couldn’t have been better timed. The alarm bells are ringing at a time when the world is fast moving away from agriculture to industrialisation. With small farms being gobbled up by big agribusiness, farmland increasingly being diverted for industrial purposes, and the international focus shifting from staple foods to cash crops, the world now faces an impending food crisis. The era of cheap food is over. International wheat prices have risen 300% in the last five years; in 2007, wheat prices shot up by 92%. Rice and maize prices too have risen sharply. The FAO food prices index rose by an unprecedented 40% in 2007. Since India began importing wheat in 2006, prices have shot through the roof. Within a short span of two years, global wheat prices almost doubled, forcing India to buy at $ 390 in August 2007. With expectations of more purchases by India, wheat futures also increased by 70%. At the same time, food stocks worldwide have plummeted. In fact, food reserves are at their lowest for the past three decades. Wheat stocks, for instance, in 2007 stood at 107 million tonnes, down from 197 million tonnes in 2001. Similarly, rice stocks have tumbled to 71 million tonnes from a high of 136 million tonnes in the corresponding period. Indications for the future are equally dismal. Forecasts by the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) paint an equally grim picture. Already questions are being asked: Who will feed 1.3 billion Chinese and 1.1 billion Indians? While both these countries have the inherent capability to increase production and become self-sufficient, a few African and South Asian countries are cause for concern. Not only because of the problem of importing food at prohibitive prices but also the fact that food is becoming unavailable in the international market. Although China’s harvest hovers around the 500-million-tonne mark, food availability is on the decline. Food prices have risen by around 12%; the increase has been astronomical especially in the case of edible oils, meat and poultry. In India, while foodgrain production hovers around 215 million tonnes, the food crisis has become more pronounced in the past few years. Due to a shift in policy that allows private agribusiness companies to buy wheat directly from farmers, stocks for the public distribution system have fallen drastically thereby necessitating imports. With wheat imports multiplying since 2006, India has now become the world’s biggest importer. Ironically, this dubious tag comes at a time when there is no shortfall in domestic wheat production. Although Indian Minister for Food and Agriculture Sharad Pawar has repeatedly asserted that wheat imports are here to stay, India may have to rethink its neoliberal policy of integrating agriculture with the global economy. After international wheat prices doubled within a span of one year, the government has been forced to curb its aggressive buying spree. In India, rising food prices are a matter of concern because of their impact on inflation. Prices are still relatively under control and so the nation does not see the impending crisis on the food production front. Although the country is reeling under its worst agrarian crisis, the general belief is that the farmers’ distress has nothing to do with food production. Unfortunately this is not true. The negative impacts are visible all around us. Food production in India has been stagnant for almost two decades. Since 1987, food production has risen by an average of 1.5-2 million tonnes a year. In a country like India, a million tonnes here or there do not mean anything. It is obvious that food production has failed to keep pace with rising population. In fact, ever since economic liberalisation was unleashed in 1991, the compound growth rate in agriculture has fallen to that of population growth rate. The mammoth task of feeding the nation has somehow been left to market forces. Meanwhile, mainline economists have been pleading for a shift in focus from agriculture to industry, hoping to meet our food security needs by importing cheap food. Crop diversification from staple foods to cash crops has therefore received an impetus. Fertile land is being diverted to meet the demands of the industry and housing sectors. Cultivable land is being acquired either for Special Economic Zones (SEZs) or for infrastructure development. The result is that cultivable land, which was already suffering the environmental impacts of chemical-induced intensive farming, is now being diverted to other uses. A policy like this will seriously impact future food productivity. In neighbouring Pakistan too, no lessons have been learnt. Pakistan has gone ahead and embraced corporate agriculture. Such an economic policy needs immediate correction. The global food situation has undergone a sea change. It is neither feasible not does it make economic sense to buy food at exorbitant prices and offer farmers low prices for their produce. The wheat situation is a case in point. How can a country justify importing wheat at Rs 1,600 at a time when domestic procurement prices do not exceed Rs 1,000 a quintal? When we import wheat at higher prices we actually pay a higher price to producers abroad. Instead, we should be paying our farmers higher prices. India is still in a fairly comfortable situation. We only require a mix of policies to drag the emphasis back to food self-sufficiency. Economic policies must be reassessed to highlight sustainable agriculture. Give farmers remunerative prices for their produce, provide an enabling environment for agriculture, and Indian farmers will produce bumper harvests year after year. Not only for our country but for neighbouring countries as well. All it needs is to re-focus on agriculture. Let us not forget, for a hungry nation nothing is more important than food security. India cannot afford to be lax about feeding itself. InfoChange News & Features, March 2008
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