India could face drought if monsoon remains weak
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Sowing has been significantly affected for the ongoing kharif season, according to agriculture ministry data. Although monsoon rains have now covered all of the country, the meteorological department says that, as of July 1, rainfall has been 29% below normal
A bland-looking set of statistics from the Union agriculture ministry, showing that sowing has been significantly lower than normal for the ongoing kharif season, has brought home the fact that this is a rain-deficit year for India and the country could well be facing a drought year.
Paddy has been hit the worst -- sowing is down to 38 lakh hectares from an average of 51 lakh hectares this time of year, out of a total area of around 319 lakh hectares in the country under paddy cultivation.
The situation is equally bad when it comes to coarse grains. At least 56 lakh hectares of land should have been sown with coarse grains like jowar, bajra and maize by this time. Instead, only 26.60 lakh hectares have been covered so far.
“This is due to lower water levels and a delayed monsoon as well as an acute shortage of electricity in these states,” said an official in the agriculture ministry. States like Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh have been the worst affected.
Earlier, when the agriculture secretary called for a meeting of his state government counterparts, they were advised to delay sowing until August when most of the rainfall was expected. Paddy and wheat, which require more water for cultivation, were supposed to be eschewed in favour of coarse grains which are more disease-resistant and require less water.
The latest official numbers, however, show that the rain shortfall has hit almost all crops except pulses and cotton, which have been hit marginally. Further, meteorology department officials predict that the northern states are likely to get little rainfall in the next 10 days -- a critical time for the sowing of kharif crops.
The agriculture belt of north India is now witnessing an overall rainfall shortage of 46%. Uttar Pradesh tops the list, with a shortfall of 76%. Punjab is witnessing a 69% deficit; not far behind are Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh with a 66% rainfall shortage. Haryana and Delhi saw some rain, but they are still 57% behind normal.
Although monsoon rains have now covered the entire country, meteorological officials say that, as of July 1, the rains have been 29% below normal. The met department predicts a large gap between actual and normal rainfall this season, although its director in Delhi B P Yadav maintained: “It is not drought. Some regions are not getting enough rains but it is just a rainfall deficiency.”
According to the met department, the situation should ease over the next few weeks. “We predict some rain and thundershowers over the next few days, but they won’t be that heavy,” Yadav added.
Meanwhile, in Australia, scientists predict India’s monsoon will remain weak, according to the Madden-Julian Oscillation Index that gauges the eastward progress of tropical rain.
Weather experts have been claiming that the formation of the El Nino weather anomaly in the equatorial Pacific Ocean could have led to a weakening of the annual Indian monsoon.
“The slow progress of the monsoon and its poor performance during the first quarter of the monsoon season (June-September) is causing serious concern among farmers as well as the (Indian) government,” says a report by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) attaché in New Delhi.
“The window of opportunity for planting most kharif crops (rice, coarse grains, soybeans, peanut, cotton and pulses) will be over by mid-July. If rains come in the next week, planting operations will pick up. Otherwise, the country could be heading for a severe drought.”
Source: The Indian Express, July 9, 2009
DNA, July 8, 2009
IBNLive.com, July 2009