Cancun summit: scientists call for 'rationing' in developed world
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COMMENTS 
Global warming is now such a serious threat to mankind that climate change experts are calling for Second World War-style rationing in rich countries to bring down carbon emissions
In a series of papers published by the Royal Society, physicists and chemists from some of world’s most respected scientific institutions, including Oxford University and the Met Office, agreed that current plans to tackle global warming are not enough.
As the world meets in Cancun, Mexico, for the latest round of United Nations talks on climate change, influential academics called for much tougher measures to cut carbon emissions.
In one paper, Professor Kevin Anderson, director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, said the only way to reduce global emissions enough, whilst allowing poorer nations to continue to grow, is to halt economic growth in the rich world over the next 20 years.
This would mean drastic changes in lifestyle for many people in countries like Britain as everyone will have to avail of less ‘carbon intensive’ goods and services such as long-haul flights and fuel-hungry cars.
Anderson admitted it “would not be easy” to persuade people to reduce their consumption of goods. But politicians should consider a rationing system similar to the one introduced during the last “time of crisis” in the 1930s and ’40s.
This could mean a limit on electricity so people are forced to turn the heating down, turn off the lights and replace old electrical goods like huge fridges with more efficient models. Food that has travelled from abroad and goods that require a lot of energy to manufacture may be limited.
“The Second World War and the concept of rationing is something we need to seriously consider if we are to address the scale of the problem we face,” he said.
Anderson insisted that halting growth in the rich world does not necessarily mean a recession or a worse lifestyle; it just means making adjustments in everyday life such as using public transport and wearing a sweater rather than turning on the heating.
“I am not saying we have to go back to living in caves,” he said. “Our emissions were a lot less 10 years ago, and we got by okay then.”
Unless emissions are reduced dramatically in the next 10 years, the world is set to see temperatures rise by more than 4 degrees C by as early as the 2060s, causing floods, drought and mass migration.
The last round of talks in Copenhagen last year ended in a weak political accord to keep temperature rise below the dangerous tipping point of 2 degrees C.
This time, 194 countries are meeting again at Cancun to try and make the deal legally binding and agree targets on cutting emissions. At the moment efforts are focused on trying to get countries to cut emissions by 50% by 2050, relative to 1990 levels.
However, Dr Myles Allen of Oxford University’s Department of Physics said this might not be enough. He said that if emissions do not come down quick enough even a slight change in temperature will be too rapid for ecosystems to keep up.
Also, by measuring emissions relative to a particular baseline rather than putting a limit on the total amount that can be pumped into the atmosphere there is a danger that the limit is exceeded.
“Peak warming is determined by the total amount of carbon dioxide we release into the atmosphere, not the rate we release it in any given year,” he said. “Dangerous climate change, however, also depends on how fast the planet is warming up, not just how hot it gets, and the maximum rate of warming does depend on the maximum emission rate. It’s not just how much we emit, but how fast we do so.”
Other papers published on ‘4C and beyond’ in Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society warned of rising sea levels, droughts in river basins and mass migrations.
Oxfam UK said that 21,000 people died in weather-related disasters in the first nine months of 2010, more than twice the number for the whole of 2009. Although it is impossible to link any single event with rising temperatures, a report compiled by Oxfam pointed out that extreme weather events have been increasing with global warming.
Tim Gore, of Oxfam, said both the floods in Pakistan and droughts in Russia have been linked to climate change. “This year has seen massive suffering and loss due to extreme weather disasters. This is likely to get worse as climate change tightens its grip. The human impacts of climate change in 2010 send a powerful reminder why progress in Cancun is more urgent than ever.”
Oxfam is calling for a new ‘Green Fund’ of at least $100 billion per annum to be set up by 2020 to help poor countries adapt. Chris Huhne, the energy and climate change secretary, said the UK would work hard to set up a fund.
He said the talks might not decide this year where the money will come from but insisted progress could be made on possible options such as a tax on aviation.
Also the negotiators could decide ways to pay poor countries for reducing deforestation and how to share green technology like wind farm knowledge.
“We won’t get a full binding deal in Cancun, but people and businesses around the world will be watching and expecting to see us prepare the ground,” he said.
Source: http://www.telegraph.co.uk, November 2010
BBC, November 29, 2010